利空：
美联储表示，经济复苏的速度慢于预期。经过调整的2011年的增长速度大约为2.7％至2.9％，2012年大约为3.3％至3.7％。
“我们没有一个确切的报告说明为什么增长步伐放缓，”
“金融机构的弱点，住房问题，发展和负债的平衡，可能会比我们想象的更严重，更持久。”
利多：
6000亿美元国债计划购买下周将如期完成，然后暂停其三年的经济救市行动，观察现有的援助方案实施情况是否会促进增强增长。（我把这点看作利多因为暂时不用打鸡血维持生命）
“经济持续以温和的步伐复苏，慢于委员会的预期，”美联储在声明中说。 “委员会预计，复苏的步伐在未来几个季度将会回暖，高失业率会逐渐下降。” （不会加息）
委员会还投票通过维持2万亿美元国债和抵押贷款支持的证券再投资计划。这些投资是为了压低长期利率，从而使企业和消费者借钱时资本更加便宜。研究表明，这种努力已经产生了效益。（QE2.X？不宣布了）
潜台词是：
顽症的急性发作期已过，暂无生命危险。观察能不能靠静养恢复。
MM没要到糖果，顶多躺在地上再赖一阵。面对现状，也很无奈。Q2 ER快到了，走一步算一步吧。
附statement
Release Date: June 22, 2011
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Inflation has picked up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Inflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.
To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee will complete its purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of this month and will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
The Committee will monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will act as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.
声明全文如下：
自FOMC4月份政策制定会议以来所收到的信息确认表明，经济复苏进程仍在以温和的速度继续进行中，但在某种程度上慢于FOMC此前预期。此外，最近公布的各项就业市场指标也一直都弱于预期。经济复苏进程的步伐放缓部分反映出了某些因素的影响，而这些因素很可能将是暂时性的，其中包括粮食和能源价格上涨给个人消费者购买力和支出带来的衰减后果，以及与日本大地震和海啸这一悲剧事件相关的供应链中断等。家庭支出以及公司在设备和软件方面的支出继续增长，但非居住房屋方面的投资则仍旧表现疲弱，住房部门也仍旧保持在受抑制的水平。最近几个月以来，通货膨胀已经有所上升，主要是反映了某些商品和进口货物的价格上涨和最近的供应链中断状况，但更长期通胀预期一直都保持稳定。
FOMC正依据其法定使命来寻求培育充分就业和物价稳定性。目前而言，失业率仍旧处于较高水平；但FOMC预计，未来几个季度时间里复苏进程的步伐将会加快，失业率将恢复逐步下滑的趋势，走向FOMC判定为符合其双重使命的水平。最近以来通胀已经有所上升，但FOMC预计在能源及其他商品价格上涨所带来的后果消散后，通胀将回落至符合或低于FOMC双重使命的水平。但是，FOMC仍将继续密切关注通胀和通胀预期的进展状况。
为了促进进行中的经济复苏进程和帮助确保长期内的通胀水平符合FOMC的使命，FOMC今天决定将联邦基金利率维持在0到0.25%的目标区间不变。 FOMC继续预计，处于较低水平的资源利用率和中期内受抑制的通胀前景等经济状况很可能将使FOMC有理由在更长时期内将联邦基金利率维持在极低水平。 FOMC将在本月底以前完成购买6000亿美元美国各州的计划，并将维持现有的一项政策，也即是把来自于所持债券的本金付款进行再投资。FOMC将对其持有的债券资产的规模和构成进行定期回顾，并做好了在合适的时间对其作出调整的准备。
FOMC将继续监控经济前景和金融市场状况的进展，并将在必要时候采取行动来最好地培育充分就业和物价稳定性。
在此次政策制定会议上投票支持FOMC货币政策行动的委员有：主席本-伯南克(Ben S.Bernanke)、副主席威廉-达德利(William C. Dudley)、伊丽莎白-杜克(Elizabeth A. Duke)、查尔斯-埃文斯(Charles L. Evans)、理查德-费舍尔(Richard W. Fisher)、那拉亚纳-科切拉科塔(Narayana Kocherlakota)、查尔斯-普罗索(Charles I. Plosser)、萨拉-布鲁姆-拉斯金(Sarah Bloom Raskin)、丹尼尔-塔鲁洛(Daniel K. Tarullo)和珍妮特-耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)。 |
发表于 2011-6-25 20:30
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