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标题: [闲谈] 20120829 YYB日间灌水 [打印本页]

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 09:06 标题: 20120829 YYB日间灌水

小小高开？？如果是，空，多半会被补掉。。

今天上午没空。。。各位邻居玩好。。。不要影响工作

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 09:32

作者: oldfox 时间: 2012-8-29 09:33

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 09:43

Slowly to challenge the previous high, already started.

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 10:10

有点不妙呀。

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 10:28

牛牛也太衰了！短期不再做牛。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 10:56

小小高开？？如果是，空，多半会被补掉。。

今天上午没空。。。各位邻居玩好。。。不要影响工作
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-29 09:06

辛苦你了,老大.

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 10:57

小小高开？？如果是，空，多半会被补掉。。

今天上午没空。。。各位邻居玩好。。。不要影响工作
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-29 09:06

支持手大，烧的机会快来了！

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 10:58

大盘平开, 现在牛牛蹦跶完了, 累了! 该趴下了.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:00

GDP数据不坏:

Released On 8/29/2012 8:30:00 AM For Q2p:2012
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR 1.5 % 1.7 % 1.4 % to 2.0 % 1.7 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.5 % to 1.7 % 1.6 %

Highlights
Expectations were for a modest upgrade to second quarter GDP growth and that is what the markets got. Real GDP growth was revised up to 1.7 percent annualized, compared to an initial estimate of 1.5 percent and to 2.0 percent in the first quarter. The second estimate matched analysts' projection for 1.7 percent.

The mix of component revisions was mostly favorable. The upward revision was due to higher estimates for personal consumption, nonresidential structures, and exports. Also, import growth was revised down and government purchases fell less than previously estimated. Pulling down on the second revisions were lower estimates for growth in equipment & software, residential investment, and inventories. The downward revision to inventory growth was notable in that businesses are keeping stocks under control.

The change in the component mix left final demand improved somewhat. Final sales of domestic product increased an upwardly revised 2.0 percent, compared to an annualized 1.2 percent for the advance estimate and compared to a 2.4 percent rise in the first quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers (excludes net exports) were nudged up to 1.6 percent annualized versus the initial estimate of 1.5 percent, following a 2.2 percent advance in the prior quarter.

Economy-wide inflation according to the GDP price index was unrevised at 1.6 percent annualized. The median market forecast was for 1.6 percent.

Overall, the economy is still sluggish but less than earlier believed.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:02

房屋销售数据不错. 看来美国房事真的在复苏之中:

Pending Home Sales Index
Released On 8/29/2012 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2012
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Pending Home Sales Index - Level 99.3 101.7
Pending Home Sales Index - M/M -1.4 % 1.0 % -1.5 % to 3.5 % 2.4 %

Highlights
The latest good news out of the housing sector is a 2.4 percent rise in the pending home sales index, a gain that points to further improvement for existing home sales. The year-on-year rate of plus 12.4 percent is the highest in nearly 2-1/2 years. Regional data show gains in 3 of 4 regions led by the South which is the largest region. Sales of existing homes have been trending higher for the last year though gains have been slightly lagging those for new homes.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:03

石油库存量高, 对油价上涨不利:

EIA Petroleum Status Report
Released On 8/29/2012 10:30:00 AM For wk8/24, 2012
Prior Actual
Crude oil inventories (weekly change) -5.4 M barrels 3.8 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change) -1.0 M barrels -1.5 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change) 1.0 M barrels 0.9 M barrels

Highlights
A big jump in imports during the August 24 week fed a 3.8 million barrel build in oil inventories to 364.5 million barrels. Oil inventories remain very heavy and, for the 12th week in a row, remain above the upper limit of their historical range.

Demand data from the wholesale sector show solid strength for gasoline where, despite the rise underway in prices, the year-on-year rate, at minus 1.0 percent, shows the most strength since October. In terms of million barrels per day, demand for gasoline is sharply higher than July and is at its best level since August last year. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels in the week while distillate inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels.

The price of oil is little changed following today's data. Next week this report will show the initial effects of Hurricane Isaac and the shutting in of Gulf production.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:05

ZT from Pro:

The Tightest Range of All Time

For the bulk of August stocks have been trading between 1400 and the 1426. That is one of the tightest ranges of all time.

Simply, investors refuse to breakout higher without a stronger catalyst. Just as vehemently, they refuse to embark upon a correction without sufficient cause. And so we are stuck in the range.

Tuesday's trio of economic data (Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Mfg Index) were a combined neutral reading. That is why stocks put in another relatively breakeven finish.

Now the fate of the market rests on the next round of data through week's end. Namely GDP, Personal Income & Outlays, Consumer Sentiment, Factory Orders and the Beige Book carrying the load.

This stalemate has to end sometime soon. Traders should jump on the bandwagon on breakout moves in either direction as momentum will likely pick up from there for a sustained move

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:07

According to our analytics team, movements by our indicators support the premise for sideways drifting by stock prices until the Fed chairman speaks Friday.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:07

Increasingly, market strategists are advising their clients to stay sidelined until the Fed and ECB are either forthcoming with “exceptional” easing measures or sit tight, awaiting signs of further economic weakness. Trading volume, anemic this time of year in any case, has virtually evaporated, as holiday seekers leave their desks early, preferring to read the news of Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech from their beech chairs on Friday, and awaiting details of any new bond-buying program after the September 6 ECB policy meeting. US futures are flat and little change is anticipated. Yesterday’s data was mixed: US home prices rose for the first time since 2012, while consumer confidence fell the most in ten months. Today’s calendar may show US second quarter GDP revised higher to indicate 1.7% growth from the initially posted, 1.5% gain, but lower than the first quarter’s 2% pace. July’s pending home sales may show sales up 1% from June, reversing June’s 1.4% fall. The Fed’s Beige Book of anecdotal economic reports is likely to show the economy recovering moderately, an improvement, perhaps, from the latest FOMC policy meeting minutes in which many members felt additional accommodation would be needed fairly quickly unless the economy picks up its pace.

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 11:08

oldfox 发表于 2012-8-29 09:33

狐狸大师，还没听过你的高见，说说看？

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:08

News out yesterday that ECB President Draghi will miss the Jackson Hole conference buoyed confidence that details were being worked out for a bond-buying program, likely to be detailed after the ECB policy meeting next Thursday. Draghi wrote in Germany’s Die Zielt weekly that “when financial markets are fragmented or influenced by irrational fears,” it may become necessary to take “exceptional measures…to fix such blockages to ensure a single monetary policy and thus price stability for all euro area citizens.” There is still some uncertainty over the Bundesbank’s willingness to support large-scale bond purchasing; President Weidman was quoted saying monetary easing “can become addictive, like a drug.”

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:08

Whether or not the “addictive drug” will be injected into the US financial system soon may not be answered in Friday’s Bernanke speech, but await further economic reports on employment and manufacturing due out next week to justify or not the Fed’s stated reliance on concrete economic data for additional monetary stimulus actions. Instead, Bernanke’s titled “Monetary Policy Since the Crisis” suggests a tablet for presenting the benefits garnered by previous accommodation acts, and if hints are to be found, they may have to be construed from such interpretations of previous actions.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:08

The euro and US dollar are little changed in today’s electronic trade, also reflecting the uncertainty of central bankers’ actions. The euro is off 0.04%, but still near an 8-week high on easing expectations. The US dollar is up 0.1% against a currency basket. Copper is trading 0.9% lower at $3.43, reflecting global growth worries. Crude prices are down 0.8% at $95.57 as traders watch Hurricane Isaac make landfall and downgrade their risk assessments for Gulf oil production.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:09

Asian markets were mixed in today’s trade, with China’s Shanghai Composite off 1.1% to a fresh 3 ½-year low. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell a modest, 0.1%. China’s chief economic planner was quoted in China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency as saying that the pace of the nation’s economic growth is stabilizing at a slow rate, and government will need to prevent a rebound in housing prices in the second half. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.4%; South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.1%.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:09

European bourses are trading lower this morning, as German Chancellor Merkel meets with Italy’s PM Monti, and investors grow increasingly concerned that Spain may request a full bailout, raising the stakes even higher for decisive ECB policy action. The UK FTSE 100 is off 0.5%; Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC are off 0.6%; Italy’s FTSE MIB and Spain’s IBEX 35 are both down 0.4%.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:10

Yields of Italian 10-years are 3 bps higher at 5.86% this morning; Spain’s are up 7 bps at 6.55%; German bunds are unchanged at 1.34%. As Merkel and Monti discuss Italy’s high funding costs today, Italy is slated to sell E9 billion 6-month bills and up to E7.5 billion 5- and 10-years tomorrow. Yesterday’s Madrid sale of E3.6 billion shorter-term bills saw funding costs decline with the nation’s 3-month yields the lowest since May. However, yesterday the Spanish region, Catalonia, became its second region to request a full bailout from Madrid after losing access to capital markets. The request heightened expectations that the nation will need a full European rescue.

作者: oldfox 时间: 2012-8-29 11:11

狐狸大师，还没听过你的高见，说说看？
NYQ 发表于 2012-8-29 11:08

观望，今天不操作了！

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:24

现在更新一下日间指标读数情况

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作者: 喜欢热闹 时间: 2012-8-29 11:30

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作者: 真水无香 时间: 2012-8-29 11:31

dingding

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 11:35

现在更新一下日间指标读数情况

**** 本内容被作者隐藏 ****
Diver 发表于 2012-8-29 11:24

作者: 西门吹雪 时间: 2012-8-29 11:46

回复 24# Diver

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 11:48

观望，今天不操作了！
oldfox 发表于 2012-8-29 11:11

从ES形态看（15-30min ），周一晚到今天属中期调整。等是个不错的选择。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 11:48

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作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 11:52

回复 Diver
西门吹雪发表于 2012-8-29 11:46

流鼻血是啥表情？
Just curious. I can ask, but you don't have to answer.

作者: 西门吹雪 时间: 2012-8-29 11:57

流鼻血是啥表情？
Just curious. I can ask, but you don't have to answer.
NYQ 发表于 2012-8-29 11:52

据主席说这个表情比较拉风。。。。。。

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 12:05

本帖最后由 NYQ 于 2012-8-29 12:10 编辑

回复 NYQ

做个 Pairs trading, 不用考虑大盘
西门吹雪发表于 2012-8-29 11:59

Excellent idea. May be one of the best ways to trade the current situation and may make some safe money.
Actrually, i had to hedged this morning after I realized the expected bulls may not as I originally thought.

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 12:07

据主席说这个表情比较拉风。。。。。。
西门吹雪发表于 2012-8-29 11:57

haha, 四句话，一个表情。That's it.

作者: shatianyou 时间: 2012-8-29 12:14

作者: blessed 时间: 2012-8-29 12:19

回复 24# Diver

appreciate your work

作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-29 12:26

Fake break down, I guess.

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作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-29 12:31

日线图，暂时没啥毛病。

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作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-29 12:32

VIX还差一点点火候。再磨蹭几天估计就差不多了。

作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-29 12:33

TLT今天掉头了。

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2012-8-29 12:35

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 12:37

本帖最后由 Diver 于 2012-8-29 12:38 编辑

季节性规律：

按日

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今天是月底倒数第三天

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作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 12:42

季节性规律：

节日周

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今天是劳动节前第三天（-3）。

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作者: 西门吹雪 时间: 2012-8-29 12:45

VIX还差一点点火候。再磨蹭几天估计就差不多了。
CoolMax 发表于 2012-8-29 12:32

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 12:46

季节性规律：

按月

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现在是August。

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作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 12:52

今天牛牛是相当的猛！

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作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 12:54

季节性规律：

按月
**** 本内容被作者隐藏 ****

现在是August。
Diver 发表于 2012-8-29 12:46

Cool
........

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 12:56

We need a long black bar

LOL

作者: mcfarren168 时间: 2012-8-29 12:59

回复 41# tfmegatron

dingding!!!!!

作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-29 12:59

作者: student009 时间: 2012-8-29 13:00

作者: chickencoop 时间: 2012-8-29 13:10

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Diver 发表于 2012-8-29 11:48

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 13:21

Finally, it seems promising for bulls.

作者: hq1888 时间: 2012-8-29 13:22

该跌不跌, 说明熊没底气.

作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-29 13:23

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作者: 西门吹雪 时间: 2012-8-29 13:25

回复 56# CoolMax

向上突破！！！

作者: catbear 时间: 2012-8-29 13:29

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 13:30

接连三天都虚晃一枪弹起（ES），今天终于要成功？

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 13:31

回复 CoolMax

向上突破！！！
西门吹雪发表于 2012-8-29 13:25

还是横盘，画个更大的三角形吧。

作者: catbear 时间: 2012-8-29 13:33

TLT今天掉头了。
CoolMax 发表于 2012-8-29 12:33

这个比较怪异啊。

你说这TLT是领先指标还是滞后指标？

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 13:33

接连三天都虚晃一枪弹起（ES），今天终于要成功？
NYQ 发表于 2012-8-29 13:30

没那么容易。

有可能是牛牛佯攻。

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 13:33

牛牛要party了。路慢慢，有惊无险？

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 13:34

这个比较怪异啊。

你说这TLT是领先指标还是滞后指标？
catbear 发表于 2012-8-29 13:33

确实很奇怪，今天TLT跌了那么多。

作者: catbear 时间: 2012-8-29 13:35

季节性规律：

节日周
**** 本内容被作者隐藏 ****

今天是劳动节前第三天（-3）。
Diver 发表于 2012-8-29 12:42

明天买，后天卖。

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 13:36

本帖最后由 NYQ 于 2012-8-29 13:38 编辑

没那么容易。

有可能是牛牛佯攻。
Diver 发表于 2012-8-29 13:33

老大，这次有点微妙的不同：反复少，上升过程调整无力。这或许就是算盘所说的一线间的熊牛变化。

作者: catbear 时间: 2012-8-29 13:38

确实很奇怪，今天TLT跌了那么多。
Diver 发表于 2012-8-29 13:34

VIX 还在涨。

作者: 西门吹雪 时间: 2012-8-29 13:45

老大，这次有点微妙的不同：反复少，上升过程调整无力。这或许就是算盘所说的一线间的熊牛变化。
NYQ 发表于 2012-8-29 13:36

大师还在看跌！！！

作者: chickencoop 时间: 2012-8-29 13:47

TLT broke out a small double bottom while SPY making new intraday high.... strange

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 13:49

本帖最后由 NYQ 于 2012-8-29 13:52 编辑

大师还在看跌！！！
西门吹雪发表于 2012-8-29 13:45

嘿嘿，我看涨或跌已无意义：大盘已在攀升中。不过窝火，本来做多的，虚晃一枪就把我给镇住了。这就是蝌蚪的水平。

其实我该等等，即使上不去也不太可能立即下去，因在牛牛的时间段。

作者: bigorange 时间: 2012-8-29 13:51

thx
回复 24# Diver

作者: 喜欢热闹 时间: 2012-8-29 13:53

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作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 13:55

俺回来了。。。今天太忙了

提醒一下：VIX和指数同涨，要小心了。。。

作者: chickencoop 时间: 2012-8-29 13:58

Why？不是应该这样吗？债卷跌股市涨。。。
喜欢热闹发表于 2012-8-29 13:53

I meant TLT went up with SPY intraday. So far TLT's is just a rebound, I think.

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 14:04

好事呀！这十几点早涨完早投胎。

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 14:08

只要波动不大就算托住了。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 14:17

俺在日线图上看到了一个凶器（熊旗），更坚定了俺看目前在A2中的看法。。。。大家看到了吗？

俺期待A3浪

作者: 西门吹雪 时间: 2012-8-29 14:17

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作者: catbear 时间: 2012-8-29 14:17

俺回来了。。。今天太忙了

提醒一下：VIX和指数同涨，要小心了。。。
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-29 13:55

现在指标比较乱。 TLT跌了很多。
VIX 小涨。

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 14:19

俺在日线图上看到了一个凶器（熊旗），更坚定了俺看目前在A2中的看法。。。。大家看到了吗？

俺期待A3浪
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-29 14:17

偶看到了! 在那儿晃来晃去。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 14:20

偶看到了! 在那儿晃来晃去。
NYQ 发表于 2012-8-29 14:19

熊旗的成功率，据说有70%

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 14:20

西门吹雪发表于 2012-8-29 14:17

Sorry, 错怪老大了。表情其实挺丰富的。

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 14:21

熊旗的成功率，据说有70%
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-29 14:20

多谢手大，记住了。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 14:22

现在指标比较乱。 TLT跌了很多。
VIX 小涨。
catbear 发表于 2012-8-29 14:17

先忽略TLT。。。。VIX当日比较准。。。可能许多FUNDS 黑鸡了仓位。。。

作者: catbear 时间: 2012-8-29 14:26

黄金好像还要接着跌。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 14:28

现在MM非常的狡猾。

俺怀疑MM会利用明天大本在褐皮书的讲话，将货甩给接盘者（大部分是散户）。。。然后在下面捞便宜的筹码。

作者: learner 时间: 2012-8-29 14:29

现在更新一下日间指标读数情况

**** 本内容被作者隐藏 ****
Diver 发表于 2012-8-29 11:24

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 14:31

更新一下指标读数情况

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作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 14:31

黄金好像还要接着跌。
catbear 发表于 2012-8-29 14:26

盯黄金不如盯石油。。当然，一些ETF黄金也分流了部分市场资本，总之现在股市的量已经不太说明问题了，这个跟大量的ETF有关。。。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-29 14:33

俺们大家拿的土狼屯指数从来不骗人。已经连续三天悄悄下跌中：告诉你们不会有QE3的！

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 14:34

本帖最后由 NYQ 于 2012-8-29 14:44 编辑

更新一下指标读数情况

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Diver 发表于 2012-8-29 14:31

老大狡猾。等狼真来时，你就可以独自发财了。

Just kidding. Don't take it seriously, please.

作者: maggiez 时间: 2012-8-29 14:45

作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-29 14:48

做熊还是要小心，风险不小。

作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-29 14:49

这个比较怪异啊。

你说这TLT是领先指标还是滞后指标？
catbear 发表于 2012-8-29 13:33

一般而言，玩债券的比玩股票的聪明，口袋也深。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 14:54

做熊还是要小心，风险不小。
CoolMax 发表于 2012-8-29 14:48

牛熊都有风险。设好止损要紧。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 14:58

牛牛也知道8月26日的低只是第一腿，至少还有一腿。

可是，向上的，目前是在第二腿当中，你也可以说是A2（暂时用Ａ浪来说明吧）。所以，如果说风险的话，俺觉得牛牛风险大。

作者: ruoli 时间: 2012-8-29 15:10

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 15:12

Haha, again too close to call?

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-29 15:15

本帖最后由 NYQ 于 2012-8-29 15:23 编辑

Time is ticking....

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-29 15:17

提醒一下：大家注意VIX日线，无论MACD，还是RSI，那可不是一般的强。预示有一个大的下跌。这个，跟俺的A2浪的观点也是吻合的。如果这个下跌来的话，TA上就是A3浪了，自然，1400一定会被破掉

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2012-8-29 15:20

向上再来一腿。。。

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