[闲谈] 怎样判断逆市（了）？

tianfangye

应该说， 这不是技术问题， 而是心态问题。
以反指TZA为例
5年图：

月线：（1年图）



1m


3m

tianfangye

VIX is going lower

tianfangye

能源材料从低点反弹，技术数据支持牛市
ECRI ---------------------

02-Jan-15	130.3	-4.7
09-Jan-15	131.5	-4.5
16-Jan-15	130.7	-4.6
23-Jan-15	131.6	-4.0
30-Jan-15	130.8	-3.7
06-Feb-15	130.4	-4.1
13-Feb-15	130.3	-4.1
20-Feb-15	130.9	-4.3
27-Feb-15	130.7	-4.3
06-Mar-15	131.6	-3.8
13-Mar-15	131.2	-3.4
20-Mar-15	131.5	-3.2
27-Mar-15	132.6	-2.4
03-Apr-15	132.8	-1.9
10-Apr-15	132.7	-1.4
17-Apr-15	133.3	-0.7
24-Apr-15	134.0	-0.1
01-May-15	134.2	0.5
08-May-15	134.3	1.1
15-May-15	133.7	1.3
22-May-15	133.5	1.1
29-May-15	133.0	0.7
05-Jun-15	134.1	0.7
12-Jun-15	134.1	0.9
19-Jun-15	133.8	1.0
26-Jun-15	133.3	1.2
03-Jul-15	133.3	0.9
10-Jul-15	132.4	0.3
17-Jul-15	133.0	0.1
24-Jul-15	132.7	0.0
31-Jul-15	132.6	-0.2
07-Aug-15	132.0	-0.2
14-Aug-15	131.4	-0.8
21-Aug-15	131.2	-1.2
28-Aug-15	130.3	-2.0
04-Sep-15	130.6	-2.4
11-Sep-15	130.5	-2.6
18-Sep-15	131.4	-2.5
25-Sep-15	130.0	-2.5
02-Oct-15	131.9	-1.9
09-Oct-15	128.3	-2.6
16-Oct-15	129.7	-3.1
23-Oct-15	129.6	-3.2
30-Oct-15	129.5	-4.0
06-Nov-15	130.1	-3.2
13-Nov-15	130.8	-2.7
20-Nov-15	131.0	-2.2
27-Nov-15	131.6	-1.4
04-Dec-15	131.5	-0.8
11-Dec-15	130.9	-0.7
18-Dec-15	131.3	-0.6
25-Dec-15	130.6	-0.9
01-Jan-16	130.0	-1.5
08-Jan-16	130.7	-1.5
15-Jan-16	129.8	-2.1
22-Jan-16	129.9	-2.4
29-Jan-16	129.1	-2.6
05-Feb-16	129.9	-2.9
12-Feb-16	128.1	-3.5
19-Feb-16	128.8	-3.9
26-Feb-16	129.0	-3.9
04-Mar-16	130.3	-3.6
11-Mar-16	131.6	-2.3
18-Mar-16	132.3	-1.0
25-Mar-16	133.0	0.5
01-Apr-16	133.2	1.6
08-Apr-16	134.3	2.6
15-Apr-16	135.5	3.8
22-Apr-16	135.8	4.8
29-Apr-16	136.1	5.9
06-May-16	135.5	6.3
13-May-16	135.1	6.1
20-May-16	136.2	6.1
27-May-16	135.9	6.0
03-Jun-16	137.4	6.7
10-Jun-16	136.5	7.1
17-Jun-16	136.4	7.1
24-Jun-16	136.3	7.2
01-Jul-16	136.7	6.8
08-Jul-16	137.1	7.0
15-Jul-16	138.3	7.6
22-Jul-16	138.2	8.2
29-Jul-16	137.9	8.5
05-Aug-16	138.0	8.7
12-Aug-16	137.9	8.4
19-Aug-16	138.3	8.2
26-Aug-16	138.7	8.4
02-Sep-16	139.2	8.6
09-Sep-16	139.9	9.2
16-Sep-16	139.2	9.2
23-Sep-16	139.3	9.2
30-Sep-16	139.6	9.1
07-Oct-16	139.4	8.6
14-Oct-16	139.6	8.5
21-Oct-16	138.6	8.0
28-Oct-16	138.4	7.2
04-Nov-16	138.6	6.6
11-Nov-16	139.2	6.2
18-Nov-16	141.8	7.2
25-Nov-16	142.1	8.3
02-Dec-16	143.2	9.7